Australia’s labour market is becoming more cautious, but that does not mean hiring demand has disappeared.

According to SEEK’s September 2026 Economist Briefing, an estimated 1.2 million positions still need to be filled across Australia. This comes at a time when employment growth is slowing, job switching has declined and businesses are facing higher costs and greater economic uncertainty.

For employers, that combination matters. The market may be softer than it was during the post-pandemic hiring boom, but competition for talent has not simply gone away.

A labour market that is slowing, not stopping

SEEK’s data shows that Australian employment growth has moderated and unemployment has been gradually trending higher. Private-sector wage growth has also slowed from the stronger increases recorded over the past few years.

On the surface, employers could interpret that as a sign that recruitment should become easier. A larger pool of available workers should theoretically mean more candidates competing for vacancies.

But that only tells part of the story.

SEEK’s briefing also shows that job switching and workforce mobility have declined. Employees are changing jobs at a lower rate, with higher living costs and weaker consumer confidence contributing to a more cautious environment.

This creates an interesting hiring market: employers may see more candidate availability in some areas, while simultaneously finding that experienced people who are already securely employed are less willing to move.

For businesses recruiting specialist or experienced talent, simply waiting for the market to produce more applicants may therefore not be enough.

Why are there still so many positions to fill?

SEEK estimates approximately 1.2 million positions will still need to be filled, despite slower employment growth, lower job mobility and a slightly higher retrenchment rate.

Importantly, this should not be read as 1.2 million live job advertisements at one point in time. SEEK describes the measure as estimated positions to be filled, reflecting the continuing volume of hiring required across the workforce.

There are several forces contributing to that demand.

One is continued business growth. In SEEK’s data, around 33% of businesses expect their headcount to increase over the next 12 months, compared with approximately 18% expecting headcount to decrease. Even in a high-cost environment, considerably more businesses are planning workforce growth than contraction.

Replacement hiring is another factor. SEEK reports that the number of Australians intending to retire over the next 12 months has been increasing. At the same time, the total number of people in employment has grown substantially over the longer term.

Employers are therefore not only recruiting because they are expanding. Roles continue to open because people retire, leave organisations, change industries or move into different occupations.

More workers does not automatically mean easier hiring

One of the more important findings in the SEEK briefing is the decline in mobility.

Employees appear increasingly reluctant to leave existing positions. That changes the recruitment challenge.

An employer may technically have access to a large pool of qualified people, but many of those people are already employed and may need a stronger reason to consider moving.

This means employers need to look beyond the size of the candidate market and ask a different question: why would the person we want leave their current role for ours?

In a higher-cost environment, the fundamentals of an employment offer become particularly important. Remuneration needs to reflect the market, but employers also need to communicate clearly what the role offers, where it can lead and why moving organisations represents a worthwhile step.

The cost of an unclear or uncompetitive proposition may be fewer suitable candidates entering the recruitment process in the first place.

Hiring conditions will continue to vary significantly

The national headline also masks substantial differences across Australia.

SEEK identifies Queensland and Western Australia as recent standouts for employment, while Perth has also experienced an increase in job advertisements.

Mobility also varies considerably by industry. Hospitality, health and social assistance, retail, professional services and construction have relatively high rates of worker movement, while sectors including public administration, financial services and mining record lower rates.

Employers therefore need to avoid treating the Australian labour market as one market. Candidate supply, mobility and salary expectations can look very different depending on location, occupation and industry.

What should employers be preparing for?

The next phase of the labour market is unlikely to resemble either the extreme candidate shortages of the immediate post-pandemic period or a market where employers suddenly have unlimited access to talent.

Instead, SEEK’s findings point towards a more selective and cautious market.

Businesses are under pressure to manage costs, but many still intend to grow. Employees are more hesitant to change jobs, but organisations still have significant numbers of positions to fill. Retirement and normal workforce turnover will continue creating replacement demand even where overall employment growth slows.

For employers, that puts greater importance on planning rather than reactive recruitment.

Understanding where future vacancies are likely to emerge, identifying difficult-to-replace skills and building talent pipelines before positions become urgent can reduce the pressure when hiring demand arrives.

The headline figure of 1.2 million positions to fill is therefore less a sign of a booming labour market than a reminder that Australia still has substantial workforce demand.

The market may be changing, but the need to attract and retain the right people remains.